Decline In Solar Panel Prices Over Time

Barely five years later most ppas in the 2015 sample are priced at or below 50 mwh.

Decline in solar panel prices over time. The dramatic drop in the cost of solar photovoltaic pv modules which has fallen by 99 percent over the last four decades is often touted as a major success story for renewable energy technology. As costs decline the number of people for whom solar is a viable affordable possibility increases which further depresses panel prices. The price of solar has dropped by an incredible amount. Second ppa costs are falling.

Solar panel cost over time the price decreases over the past ten years are a major reason why homeowners are increasingly interested in installing solar panels. Let s add forecasts made by the international energy agency iea in their 2010 world energy outlook along with the forecast i made in 2011 at scientific american. What exactly accounts for that stunning drop. For many panels this is given as 2 to 3 in the first year and then 0 7 a year after that but it can be as low as 0 25 a year for some sunpower panels.

Just as remarkably and relevant for considering the future cost of solar the decline of solar prices over the past decade has been faster than almost any credible forecast. The cost has generally been following swanson s law which states that the price of solar drops by 20 for every doubling of shipped product. Note these figures may have a minus sign in front of them as in 0 7 or 0 25. Back in 1977 the price of solar photovoltaic cells was 77 for just one watt of power.

Trends have continued until recently with a report from the nrel that showed the price per watt of solar energy dropped by 27 in the first quarter of 2017 alone. According to swanson s law whenever the production and shipment of solar panels doubles panel prices drop by 20 percent. It s a good idea not to get these percentages confused. As recently as 2011 solar ppa prices in excess of 100 mwh were quite common.

We might now be in a post swanson era. But one question has never been fully addressed. Changes in solar panel cost over time can be explained by swanson s law which states that the price of solar pv modules decreases by about 20 percent for every doubling in global solar capacity. Today it s around 0 13 per watt or about 600 times less.

Prices have dropped more than 60 percent in the past several years with the average upfront cost for the commonly used 6 kw system landing between 16 200 21 420.